The Coming War On China

But what's changed is that strategy has clearly not worked. Taiwan's people have become more and more determined to maintain their de facto independence. And so as these peaceful reunification options have disappeared, China has started turning to military options. And we fear that China right now has a window of opportunity because it's coming off of about a 10-year period of just churning out ammunition, churning out warships at a rate we haven't seen from any country since World War II. And at the same time, the United States and Taiwan have been slow to respond to China's modernization, to spread out their forces, to harden them.

DAVIES: Let's talk about some of the book's broader thesis, that you can see China - apart just from just Taiwan, that you can see China becoming aggressive on a whole number of fronts. One of them you've already mentioned - this huge military buildup, shipbuilding on a huge scale. Another thing is they've been building islands in the South China Sea. A lot of people probably don't realize you can build an island. I guess they build on existing coral reefs or whatever. What are they doing What's the significance of that

You know, we even look at Putin's Russia today. I mean, Russia was a resurgent power in the 2000s, banging out 8% economic growth rates annually and largely because of high oil prices. Then when the oil prices collapsed after 2009, it drags down Russia's economy and Putin's popularity with it. He tries to revive Russia's fortunes by pressuring former Soviet states to join a Russian customs union, basically trying to treat them as economic vassals of Russia. Ukraine says, basically, thanks, but no thanks. We'd rather sign a big trade deal with the EU, and we know how that turned out. So this pattern has played out over and over again. It's the rise, followed by the fear of a coming fall. And now it looks like China is walking down this very ugly path.

DAVIES: You know, we'll talk about some more of the evidence on - about this argument. But it strikes me that, you know, I see this as accurately describing some of the nations or imperial powers in history. But I wonder - you know, it isn't true of all of them. I mean, look at the British Empire. I mean, it certainly, you know, had - it ruled much of the world, you know, a couple of hundred years ago and then went into decline. And, you know, it didn't get reckless and invade France. I mean, there is the prospect that enlightened leadership can find other ways to manage decline and, you know, without becoming so reckless. Do you think - I don't know. Can you be sure this fits

So there's plenty of signs that China is building up militarily and becoming more aggressive in trying to influence its neighbors and others around the world. Let's talk about some of the ways that you argue that this is actually born in part of weakness in China, concerns about that the future won't be as bright as the recent past. One of the things is economic stagnation. The Chinese claim that their economic growth rate is about 6%, which would make most economists happy in most places. What's the real story

DAVIES: You know, there's one other problem that you note that China is going to face increasingly in coming years. And this is, basically, the demographics of its - the aging of its population. And this is due to its, you know, one-child policy of years back. And explain what happened here and what it's going to mean for China.

DAVIES: This is FRESH AIR. I'm Dave Davies, in for Terry Gross, who's off this week. We're speaking with Tufts University associate professor and China specialist Michael Beckley. His new book with Johns Hopkins professor Hal Brands argues that China is becoming increasingly aggressive towards its neighbors in Asia and increasingly hostile toward the United States. They say China is particularly dangerous now because it's beset by internal problems and international opposition that could make its leaders more reckless. The book is \"Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict With China.\"

BECKLEY: It's actually relatively simple. In fact, defense analysts have been coming up with a strategy for more than a decade now where Taiwan, first of all, would turn itself into a prickly porcupine - you know, one that can beat back a bigger aggressor by stocking up on mobile missile launchers and armed drones and mines and building up its armies so that it can surge troops to any beach very quickly and then have a big reserve force that's essentially trained to fight guerrilla-style in Taiwan cities and jungles and have this big - you know, stockpiles and shelters for the population and just hoping that showing these preparations would scare China and just make it clear that this would be a hard slog for China, basically show that they can fight like Ukrainians, you know, against the Russians and not allow a decisive victory. And for the United States - the U.S. would disperse and harden its base infrastructure. And the goal is just by setting this up that you make it look impossible, that - make conquests look impossible, and hopefully China won't opt for it.

DAVIES: This is FRESH AIR, and we're speaking with Tufts University associate professor and China specialist Michael Beckley. His new book with Johns Hopkins professor Hal Brands argues that China is beset by internal problems and international challenges and is becoming increasingly aggressive toward its neighbors in Asia and the United States. The new book is called \"Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict With China.\" You know, Michael Beckley, I know that your grandparents were interned during World War II when Japanese citizens were forced into these camps. Tell us what you know about that experience and the impact it had on you.

BECKLEY: You know, I didn't talk to them. So my grandfather died before I was alive. But, you know, I - but I was very close to my grandma. And we didn't talk a lot about it, but I think - but I was very aware of all of these stories. And I think it just - just knowing that made international relations more personal for me. Like great power politics isn't some abstraction 'cause it flipped part of my family's life upside down. And I think that personal connection probably, you know, helped give me more energy to spend so many waking hours studying this stuff. I think it also just - it gave me a little bit more perspective because I was coming of age in the 1990s at the peak of post-Cold War triumphalism, and so as a kid, I only knew a world where democracy and free trade were spreading, and, you know, it just seemed like major war was unthinkable.

There is now a long list of instruments the US could use in a new round of economic warfare with China and others. The selection below focuses on measures that have direct or great indirect relevance for Europe. It is in part based on an extraordinary new report compiled by Republican foreign policymakers in Congress calling for a vast expansion of US economic coercion. Not all of the following measures are necessarily likely to be implemented, but they are all possible over the course of the coming months.

Whereas in the opinion of the Government of the United States the coming of Chinese laborers to this country endangers the good order of certain localities within the territory thereof: Therefore, Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That from and after the expiration of ninety days next after the passage of this act, and until the expiration of ten years next after the passage of this act, the coming of Chinese laborers to the United States be, and the same is hereby, suspended; and during such suspension it shall not be lawful for any Chinese laborer to come, or having so come after the expiration of said ninety days to remain within the United States.

Lethality matters most. When you can kill your enemy, every part of your life is better. Your food tastes better. Your marriage is stronger. Why is the mobility guy talking about lethality I'm not coming at you as a C-130 driver. I'm not coming at you as a mobility officer. I'm coming at you like an airman.

I can easily make the argument where we've been an economic war with Beijing, not we...they've been at war with us, economically, and politically, globally. The only thing that's happening now is the US is waking up to it. I mean, all these things are coming to light that there's just have stolen trillions, with a T trillions in intellectual property, how they're doing covert, subversion and influence operations against all levels of society, you know, from the Chinese diaspora living locally up to members of Congress. So and this has been going on for years.

Most of the Afghans who were brought over to the United States, in the initial wave after the collapse, were brought to the United States on what's known as humanitarian parole. And that is just a temporary status, that let them come to the United States quickly without going through, you know, these very long immigration processes. But that expires in two years from when they were brought. So it expires this coming August. So there was an effort in Congress, really backed by a lot of veterans and also the Afghans themselves, to give them permanent status. And that was called the Afghan Adjustment Act, the Afghan Adjustment Act would also have created some increased vetting processes that these Afghans would have to go through in order to get green cards. And it will also sought to streamline the Special Immigrant Visa Program. So the Africans who are still stuck in Afghanistan and in danger of retribution by the Taliban could more easily get to the United States. But that did not make it into any legislation before the end of the year. So because it's a new Congress, advocates have to start from scratch. And quite frankly, there really hasn't been any activity on it since Congress restarted or at least, not publicly. So, you know, I think this is still something that that the veterans of the Afghanistan War, and the Afghans themselves are still very much trying to get through. But we haven't seen much movement since December. 59ce067264

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